I am not a political analyst of the caliber of Offstumped or a stickler for cold data like Realitycheck. I can merely add my observations on the good, the bad and the real ugly stuff surrounding Narendra Modi’s recent poll triumph.
I completely agree with Offstumped about the Naidu-Modi comparison.
The big difference between Modi and Naidu is that Modi made believers of his electorate in his reform agenda that even his worst detractors admit delivered on its promise while Naidu had few believers outside of Cyberabad.
This apart, to be fair, several other forces actively worked against Naidu, which were absent in Modi’s case. The Telegana demand, the growing Naxal menace (towards the end of his second term, especially), and finally the Congress party’s illicit alliance with the Naxals cost Naidu the election. Most importantly, Modi’s economic achievements–were–have touched voters across different sections. Naidu’s “city-focused/high-tech” economic achievements–as Offstumped says–scarcely touched the countryside. In this sense, Naidu’s defeat is similar to S.M. Krishna. Krishna was defeated however, on other truly deserving counts but he was more or less the darling of Bangalore. The common strand that runs amongst all is: leadership. It is surprising–or is it–that the media in all its pile of expert analyses has overlooked this.
That’s where we’ll focus now.
The media attributed Naidu’s defeat mainly to anti-incumbency. It offered the same prediction on Modi’s fate in 2007 but anti-incumbency was sidelined in favour of the viler communal “trump” card. Again, Naidu had to cater to other votebanks but as this article rightly reasons, Modi simply discarded a votebank.
What is it they see in him?
His simple and austere living of the kind associated with the late Kamaraj of Tamil Nadu, but not seen in the leaders of today?
His reputation as an incorruptible politician, the likes of which is not found anywhere in India, not even in his own party?
His style of development-oriented governance, which even his detractors do not hesitate to praise?
The fruits of his policy, which Gujarat and its people are already enjoying?
His tough stance on terrorism?
His lucid-thinking on matters concerning our national security?
His defiance in the face of the greatest campaign of demonisation mounted against him, the likes of which only Indira Gandhi [Images] had faced from her political opponents and sections of the media in the 1970s?
Incorruptible is right on the money. Of all charges levelled against Modi, corruption doesn’t figure anywhere. And that is really a big deal in the country.
Look at the brief list of charges media critics have revelled in levelling against Modi (yeah, this is apart from the never-erasable mass-murderer charge):
- If he is assertive/forceful, they called him autocratic.
- If he chocked a snook at the muslim votebank he was blamed for the ghettoization of Muslims and consequently, responsible for their poverty.
- If he tried to undo the accumulated economic crap of five decades, he’s not fast enough..what was that again? ah! no “inclusive growth.”
- Worse, the media presents both doctored and unscientific figures to “prove” that Gujarat hasn’t prospered under Modi.
- If there’s no “communal” violence in the five-plus years of his rule, he is held guilty of being communal in the past (example, the Tehelka “expose”), and/or flash the Sohrabuddin Card. By that count, almost every politician–Naidu has a bloody past during his student union days–should be in the gallows.
Therefore, the equation according to Indian Media Law is really simple: you do you’re dead, you don’t you’re dead.
Since it seems the media has figured it all out, why doesn’t it tell us what exactly makes a leader?
While I agree overall with Raman’s views on the role of Modi vis a vis the Hindu identity, there’s an important point he has missed. For the first time, he has reshaped the BJP’s defensive–almost spineless–attitude as far as secularism is concerned. The BJP’s backward-bending to secure Muslim votes is because it has played by the rules set by the entire secular spectrum. It took just one election to change that. Proof: the frothing news channels.
16 Comments
BJP should not get over confident after this victory and should not loose focus of the big picture.
It was more of Modi’s victory than BJP’s and only Modi’s extraordinary hard work paved way for that. BJP should not and cannot afford to relax. There’s only one Modi.
A year and half is enough to turn the tides and the national picture does not look good for NDA, here’s why?
Going by the cyclic turns of voting, by 2009, Punjab, Rajasthan, MP, Bihar are very likely to vote for non-NDA parties. These account for some 100 odd seats.
BJP may improve in Mahashtra and UP. But only marginally.
Also in AP, Naidu will most likely make a comeback sans BJP, unless BJP can spoil his party by joining with Telangana and make some serious dent. Naidu will be rooting for that elusive third alternative and would fancy his chances of playing the king maker if not going all out for the PM’s post.
Indian General Elections is the NET sum of all the local elections.
The looses in the states that it is currently ruling needs to be compensated else where. I don’t see many states that can help BJP because all it’s strongholds it is already ruling.
Karnataka would be the key as far as i can tell. First of all it is a big state and if BJP can perform well in Karnataka, that along with some gains in Maharashtra can offset it’s anticipated loses.
BJP needs to focus on Karnataka. Plus it needs to regain at least 15-20 more seats in UP.
Karnatak + Mah + UP - Bihar - Raj - MP - Punj + Dehli = 0
Then it needs to pick up more allies and more fringe seats from here and there to reach the psychological 180 mark.
Congress got lucky with 140 odd seats, since it had an array of alliances. BJP does not have that luxury.
I am being pessimistic but BJP really needs to think out of the box for the BIG Fight ahead.
Of course i am still celebrating the Modi win. It’s worth celebrating every moment. The look on Messrs Barkha Dutt, Sardesai, Ghosh face was enough for me to open a new Champaign.
The denigration of Modi as a Nazi or National Socialist by the intellectual comrades of the Socialists eg Congress CPI and so on is a disturbing trend.
Shall we look at the evidence ? Who’s the real Nazi or National Socialist or socialist acting in the national interest as they claim to be ?
Persecution of Hindus by Congress and by the CPI
Examples include the affidavit given in the Ram Setu case
The lack of action when Kashmiri Pundits were slaughtered and ethnically cleansed out of Kashmir as a result of a civil war that was started by Congress vote rigging
Calling Hindu representatives Nazis when they act in self defence
Promoting psuedo intellectual marxists such as Romila Thapar as eminent historians. Thapar has spent her entire career denigrating hindus
Installing a Catholic junior Mussolini Sonia
Supressing all debtate about Islamo fascism and terrorism in India in the interests of preserving the Muslim vote bank although one would hope that they dont all support Islamo fascism !
Other examples
Via NAM Non Aligned Movement and through diplomatic ties being affiliated with some of the worst regimes in history such as Mao and Stalin. Nehru notoriously promoted the Hindu Chin bhai bhai policy until China invaded . The CPI cheered for China in traitorous act.
Continuing a policy pioneered by Nazi Germany Autarcky or self sufficieny with disasterous results for India
Indira’s declaration of Emergency in the closest attempt to bring fascist rule to India
So we have most of the traits of Nazis persecution of particular group Hindus ,adoption of Nazi economic policies,persecution of dissident hindus and Autocratic rule by meglomaniacs
So should we just say Hail da Madame Sonia ?
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What Gujarat win for BJP has done is not only re-invigorate BJP workers but also rekindle the interest of traditional BJP voters. The voters who were disenchanted after 2004 loss and subsequent squabbling are sort of relieved to seethe party back in shape to mount a serious challenge to UPA. This I believe will alter the equation quite a bit for 2008/2009 general elections. Secondly I believe Gujarat election to be the beginning of the end of secularism-communalism politics. In a country with 8% plus GDP growth people are more bothered about moving up in the ladder than ideologues. In India I believe ideology has little to do with governance. And finally what could swing 2008/2009 elections BJP way is the mounting national security concern. Even now congress and left do not seem to realize how serious national security as an issue is. The callous attitude towards nation’s security and UPAs vote bank politics over it will be there final folly
Sandeep,
Is there anyway all of us can make a representation to Press Council and Election Commission about these dubious exit and opinion polls. Surely anybody with an ounce of brain in their head will see how biased and wrong these polls are
Sridhar
Why bother now? Earlier the BJP guys were always trying to look good for the media - that was always hostile to it and where did it take them ?
Narendra Modi has shown the way - With the entire secular media and a hostile election commission ganged up against him, he showed - They simply do not matter.
That is the best part of this election
I wish the other BJP leaders were as forthright as Modi is.
Modi is a tall leader. I do not say this to exaggerate because he has made me feel very proud of my roots and my culture but the man has a character that is incomparable.
The singular incident of refusing to award amnesty to 2 lakh farmers booked under power theft charges before elections goes to speak volumes of this man’s strength of character.
Long live this man. He should become of PM. A strong leader alone can take forward. May God bless him with good health and strength to lead India as Prime Minister.
Just see his address after victory. This is aimed at many Indians like me who have prayed and did our bit. I have never seen a leader like him or head of another before. He is the greatest leader ever. He is the greatest Indian ever.
Must watch
http://www.jitegagujarat.com/
Look what this arsehole Karan Thappar has written
http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/StoryPage.aspx?id=8368a158-42d4-466c-ba71-685eb2bbc204
Read the last paragraph. it is extremely sickening.
At last an honest analysis of Modiji. Guys please see if you can present your opinion about his article in Times.
Swapan Dasgupta has courage.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/2661475.cms
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Tarun_Vijay_Hope_beyond_obvious/articleshow/2668075.cms
By Tarun Vijay.
This is exactly what I suggest we do. I want to do something like this. Perhaps I should join them. Guys please visit this site to see what Hinduism really means.
This is Subash Kak. A Kashimiri Pandit.
http://www.ee.lsu.edu/kak/hist.html
My point we have to make our people feel the proud of their lineage and perhaps ensure we reform our religion of the castism.
Sandeep,
I am afraid that you exhibit a tendency quite common among reawakened Hindus of seeing Israel through rose-tinted glasses. Living in a country with a weak state apparatus (soft state??) and certainly books such as Exodus (which I liked too) add to this - but reality in Israel is much more complex and multi-layered. Read this article by Daniel Pipes (no Arab bigot that) and please do go to the links provided in the article.
The consequence of hardened nationalism based on religious identity are hazardous. From conversations with Jewish friends here in Canada, one concludes that the scientifically bright, secular Jews (who let’s face it will create the next engineering miracles - and not the Haredim) are migrating out. The state is headed for Bearded Jews whose primary allegiance is to the religion and not to the state.
The bottom line is - Israel like India is an experiment in building a multi-ethnic society based on shared historical cultural ties. We need to evolve the right balance of cultural pride and institution building. We need to create a firm, even-handed state - which will emerge from getting our institutions to work as opposed to fiery idealism of not refusing hospitality to Hindu pilgrims who wear black and say they are way to Sabarimala (the non-refusal I am sure can be seen in Bangalore)
Here are a collection of articles by pseudosecs, for your enjoyment, so to speak.
Hilarious Media Articles on Gujarat Elections
http://secularindia.wordpress.com/2007/12/24/hilarious-media-articles-on-gujarat-elections/
Shanth I think you have been talking to the israeli version of the psuedo secularists
Another Modi basher and his analysis
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Opinion/Columnists/T_K_Arun/Facing_up_to_the_Modi_challenge/articleshow/msid-2670648,curpg-1.cms
I do not understand how these guys come up this sort of nonsense.
Joe,
By the way, I am terribly sorry. I didn’t get your point.