At the close of the second phase of the Karnataka polls, the scene here is interesting to say something because not much can be said about the political situation here. For some stunningly researched poll predictions and poll-watch kind of information, look no further than Offstumped. This is more a culmination of five years’ worth of observations of some amazingly dirty tour de farce enacted in this state.

For about five years, this state has not had a government. The two “coalition” governments hardly governed. The Janata Dal (Secular) undoubtedly is the villain of the piece but so are the other two. The difference is Deve Gowda willingly stripped himself in public and is paying a rather heavy price for it. As for the state, and Bangalore, enough has been said.

Here is my take on each of the major parties, followed by a roundup of how it augurs for the state.

Congress

When the polls were announced, Sonia Gandhi decided to finally satisfy S.M Krishna’s itch to return to Karnataka politics. Krishna was banished to Maharashtra to meet Deve Gowda’s demand to keep his arch-rival away. However, between 2004 and now, things here have drastically altered. With the Dalit movement gaining strength–actually, with BSP’s gradual ascension giving the Congress party jitters–several sections in the party aren’t comfortable projecting Krishna as the Chief Ministerial candidate. For now, Mallikarjun Kharge is shining as the Dalit leadership face of the Congress party. The inclusion of Siddaramaiah, unarguably the most powerful Kuruba leader, into the Congress party is another factor against Krishna. And neither is this only about Krishna. If the Congress wins, it is anybody’s guess about the kind of fight that will erupt between these aspirants.

And infighting is the least of its real problems. Of all the three major contenders, the Congress party never really had a poll strategy. It lost valuable time trying resolve the bickering over tickets and trying to even draft a decent manifesto. Rahul Gandhi’s whirlwind tour didn’t exactly lift up anybody’s spirits. The most surprising element was the way the party neglected its long-time stronghold, Bellary. Ever since the BJP took it over, the Congress party seems to have resigned to fate.

Janata Dal (Secular)

Also known as the Family Party. Everybody in the party is effectively Master Deve Gowda’s voice. See this post for a fuller explanation. Gowda’s desertion of the BJP may not be his nemesis this time but it has done undoable damage to the “party.” However, as one of the remaining leaders who can mobilise the masses, JD(S) will fare pretty decent but nobody will be surprised if it is washed out. Enough said.

BJP

The tide seems to have turned in its favour largely due to sympathy, which Deve Gowda gifted it. However, elections are not won on sympathy alone. A huge plus to BJP is its near-total consolidation of votes in North Karnataka, most of South Canara, and parts of North Canara. In addition, the crossing over of several disgruntled JD(S) Vokkaliga leaders may well add some strength to the party in the Old Mysore region (that includes Bangalore, Mysore, and surrounding areas). This region has dominated Karnataka politics for decades, and the BJP has been unable to make a significant dent here. The BJP also has near-total support of the Lingayats (equal in strength and power as the Vokkaligas), something that the Congress and JD(S) have steadily lost.

The BJP however, has absolutely no visible Dalit or “minority” faces that it can use to attract votes. Like the Congress, it is stricken with infighting. Its biggest drawback is the absolute lack of a strong leader. Of the worst, Yediyurappa–its projected Chief Ministerial candidate–looks reasonably okay but that is purely as an afterthought. One reason for this may lie in history. All of its firebrand leaders have hailed from the North. The BJP’s rise here–in recent times–has been the result of disgruntled migration from other parties. To be fair to it, it has steadily built its base in North and Coastal Karnataka but that isn’t the work of a few charismatic/firebrand leaders.

BSP

The fact that it is being mentioned as a contender is in its favour. During the 2004 polls, the BSP had made minor dents into the Congress backward castes/tribes/Dalit votebank in several areas in North Karnataka and a few places down South. Unless the Congress party has a really strong strategy to retain this vote bank, it is certain to go the Lingayat way: absolute alienation and eventual mass-migration to the BSP.

The Roundup

Irrespective of who wins, the biggest problem is leadership or at the very least, governance. Apart from a wafer-thin minority, there’s nary a politician who can reasonably articulate on policy. To be fair, Yediyurappa hasn’t had a chance so let the devil get its due.

Also, cutting across party lines, everybody’s success mantra seems to be rice at 2 Rupees a Kg, loan waivers amounting to stupendous sums, free power, and similarly-dangerous sops. Bangalore’s infrastructure is an also-ran item on the agenda. Briefly, this seems to be their idea of development.

But the most surprising (or is it?) element is the “mood on the ground,” (a detestable phrase borrowed from the media). Having followed Kannada news channels and papers, folks here seem to want to give the “BJP a chance.” And it might well be the BJP’s last chance here.

And that “mood” kind of explains a lot.